Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter Cherkessk vs Forte Taganrog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Inter Cherkessk
Inter Cherkessk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
8/31/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Yessentuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Cherkessk17%
×Draw21%
Forte Taganrog62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Cherkessk
0.97
Forte Taganrog
2.02

Forte Taganrog creates 108% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 64 away

creates per match

Inter Cherkessk
0.81
Forte Taganrog
1.61

allows per match

Inter Cherkessk
2.44
Forte Taganrog
1.14

finishing

Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par
Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Cherkessk ↓

Forte Taganrog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Inter Cherkessk or draw
38%
Inter Cherkessk or Forte Taganrog
79%
Draw or Forte Taganrog
83%

Winning margin

Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+
6%
Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals
62%
Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals
25%
Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals
7%
Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
87%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
60%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)
22%
Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Cherkessk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Cherkessk attack 0.81 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Forte Taganrog attack 1.61 + Inter Cherkessk defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Inter Cherkessk scores more
17%
level
21%
Forte Taganrog scores more
62%

Forte Taganrog at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Cherkessk vs Forte Taganrog

Forte Taganrog beat Inter Cherkessk 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on August 31, 2020.

The match was played at Yessentuki Arena in Yessentuki.