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Forte Taganrog vs Inter Cherkessk — Second League - Group 1 2020

Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Inter Cherkessk
Inter Cherkessk
3/24/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Yessentuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Forte Taganrog75%
×Draw15%
Inter Cherkessk10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forte Taganrog
2.58
Inter Cherkessk
0.83

Forte Taganrog creates 211% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 16 away

creates per match

Forte Taganrog
2.02
Inter Cherkessk
0.94

allows per match

Forte Taganrog
0.73
Inter Cherkessk
3.13

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par
Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Inter Cherkessk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw
90%
Forte Taganrog or Inter Cherkessk
85%
Draw or Inter Cherkessk
25%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
53%
Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
92%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
72%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
47%
Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals
56%
Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals
20%
Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
88%
Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.73 · 63 matches

Inter Cherkessk away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 2.02 + Inter Cherkessk defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.58

Inter Cherkessk attack 0.94 + Forte Taganrog defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more
75%
level
15%
Inter Cherkessk scores more
10%

Forte Taganrog at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Forte Taganrog 4–0 Inter Cherkessk

Forte Taganrog beat Inter Cherkessk 4-0 in Second League - Group 1 on March 24, 2021.

The match was played at Yessentuki Arena in Yessentuki.