Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter Cherkessk vs Dinamo Stavropol — Cup 2019

Inter Cherkessk
Inter Cherkessk
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
7/20/2019CupCup · 1st RoundStadion Beshtau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Inter Cherkessk34%
×Draw19%
Dinamo Stavropol47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Cherkessk
2.33
Dinamo Stavropol
2.74

Dinamo Stavropol creates 18% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Inter Cherkessk
2.67
Dinamo Stavropol
2.14

allows per match

Inter Cherkessk
3.33
Dinamo Stavropol
2.00

finishing

Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par
Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Cherkessk ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Inter Cherkessk or draw
53%
Inter Cherkessk or Dinamo Stavropol
81%
Draw or Dinamo Stavropol
66%

Winning margin

Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+
19%
Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals
90%
Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals
67%
Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals
41%
Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
93%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
75%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)
42%
Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Cherkessk at home — creates 2.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Cherkessk attack 2.67 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Dinamo Stavropol attack 2.14 + Inter Cherkessk defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Inter Cherkessk scores more
34%
level
19%
Dinamo Stavropol scores more
47%

Dinamo Stavropol at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Inter Cherkessk 4–2 Dinamo Stavropol

Inter Cherkessk beat Dinamo Stavropol 4-2 in Cup on July 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Beshtau in Lermontov.