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Dinamo Stavropol vs Inter Cherkessk — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Cherkessk
Inter Cherkessk
11/14/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dinamo Stavropol63%
×Draw19%
Inter Cherkessk17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Stavropol
2.26
Inter Cherkessk
1.10

Dinamo Stavropol creates 105% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 16 away

creates per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.40
Inter Cherkessk
0.94

allows per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.26
Inter Cherkessk
3.13

finishing

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par
Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Stavropol ↓

Inter Cherkessk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dinamo Stavropol or draw
83%
Dinamo Stavropol or Inter Cherkessk
81%
Draw or Inter Cherkessk
37%

Winning margin

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
40%
Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
89%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
66%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
39%
Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals
67%
Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals
30%
Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
78%
Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

Inter Cherkessk away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.40 + Inter Cherkessk defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.26

Inter Cherkessk attack 0.94 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dinamo Stavropol scores more
63%
level
19%
Inter Cherkessk scores more
17%

Dinamo Stavropol at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Dinamo Stavropol 0–1 Inter Cherkessk

Inter Cherkessk beat Dinamo Stavropol 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Stavropol'.