Inter Bratislava 1–7 Žilina II: Result & Stats

Inter Bratislava

FT

1 – 7

HT: 1 – 3

Žilina II

E. Osmani 41'

Y. Otubanjo 76', 49', 29', 11'

R. Gerebenits 72'

R. Polievka 51'

M. Klec 27'

11/11/2017

2. liga · Round 16Štadión FK Stupava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Inter Bratislava45%

×Draw23%

Žilina II31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter BratislavaExpected goals in this matchŽilina II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.40

Inter Bratislava

1.73

Žilina II

1.40

Inter Bratislava creates 24% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 100 away

1.60

creates per match

1.35

1.44

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Inter Bratislava

1.60

Žilina II

1.35

allows per match

Inter Bratislava

1.44

Žilina II

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Bratislava+0.00on par

Žilina II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Bratislava ↓

Žilina II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Inter Bratislava or draw

69%

Inter Bratislava or Žilina II

77%

Draw or Žilina II

55%

Winning margin

Inter Bratislava wins by 2+

24%

Žilina II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Inter Bratislava 1+ goals

82%

Inter Bratislava 2+ goals

52%

Inter Bratislava 3+ goals

25%

Žilina II 1+ goals

75%

Žilina II 2+ goals

41%

Žilina II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Inter Bratislava (draw refunded)

59%

Žilina II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Bratislava at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

Žilina II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.85 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Bratislava attack 1.60 + Žilina II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.73

Žilina II attack 1.35 + Inter Bratislava defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Inter Bratislava scores more

45%

level

23%

Žilina II scores more

31%

Inter Bratislava at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Inter Bratislava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

27'

29'

41'

49'

51'

55'

55'

72'

76'

77'

M. Vaculík← M. Baldovský

77'

B. Petrák← R. Gerebenits

84'

A. Majštiník← R. Polievka

88'

P. Chríbik← V. Pečovský

Inter

Žilina

28

Holec

24

Králik

3

Ďuratný

12

▼

Pečovský

34

⚽4

Otubanjo

7

Michlík

23

⚽

Klec

10

Sluka

9

⚽

▼

Polievka

15

Vallo

19

⚽

▼

30

3

15

31

⚽

▼

Osmani

11

Špak

17

▼

19

8

23

14

▼

Fedor

25

Klooster

Manager: R. Slezak

55'▲G. Bezak←▼P. Fedor

55'▲A. Mance←▼E. Osmani

77'▲M. Vaculík←▼M. Baldovský

Inter Bratislava substitutes

24Bezak27Mance22Vaculík1Strelčík9Kaman13Tóth

Manager: J. Kentoš

77'▲B. Petrák←▼R. Gerebenits

84'▲A. Majštiník←▼R. Polievka

88'▲P. Chríbik←▼V. Pečovský

Žilina II substitutes

20Petrák90Majštiník4Chríbik33Leško22Jaramillo5Dybala2Lacko