Inter Bratislava 1–1 Žilina II: Result & Stats

Inter Bratislava

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Žilina II

5/4/2019

2. liga · Round 27Štadión FK Stupava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Inter Bratislava49%

×Draw24%

Žilina II27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter BratislavaExpected goals in this matchŽilina II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.20

Inter Bratislava

1.72

Žilina II

1.20

Inter Bratislava creates 43% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 99 away

1.57

creates per match

1.29

1.10

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Inter Bratislava

1.57

Žilina II

1.29

allows per match

Inter Bratislava

1.10

Žilina II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Bratislava+0.00on par

Žilina II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Bratislava ↓

Žilina II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Inter Bratislava or draw

73%

Inter Bratislava or Žilina II

76%

Draw or Žilina II

51%

Winning margin

Inter Bratislava wins by 2+

27%

Žilina II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Inter Bratislava 1+ goals

82%

Inter Bratislava 2+ goals

51%

Inter Bratislava 3+ goals

25%

Žilina II 1+ goals

70%

Žilina II 2+ goals

34%

Žilina II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Inter Bratislava (draw refunded)

65%

Žilina II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Bratislava at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Žilina II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.86 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Bratislava attack 1.57 + Žilina II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Žilina II attack 1.29 + Inter Bratislava defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Inter Bratislava scores more

49%

level

24%

Žilina II scores more

27%

Inter Bratislava at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Inter Bratislava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff