Inter Allies 1–1 Koforidua: Result & Stats

Inter Allies

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Koforidua

3/29/2026

Division One League · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Inter Allies34%

×Draw27%

Koforidua40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter AlliesExpected goals in this matchKoforidua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.33

Inter Allies

1.20

Koforidua

1.33

Koforidua creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.67

creates per match

1.40

1.27

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Inter Allies

1.67

Koforidua

1.40

allows per match

Inter Allies

1.27

Koforidua

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Allies+0.00on par

Koforidua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Allies ↓

Koforidua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Inter Allies or draw

60%

Inter Allies or Koforidua

73%

Draw or Koforidua

66%

Winning margin

Inter Allies wins by 2+

14%

Koforidua wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Inter Allies 1+ goals

70%

Inter Allies 2+ goals

34%

Inter Allies 3+ goals

12%

Koforidua 1+ goals

74%

Koforidua 2+ goals

38%

Koforidua 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Inter Allies (draw refunded)

46%

Koforidua (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Allies at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Koforidua away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Allies attack 1.67 + Koforidua defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.20

Koforidua attack 1.40 + Inter Allies defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Inter Allies scores more

34%

level

27%

Koforidua scores more

40%

Koforidua at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Koforidua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff