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Inter Allies vs Great Olympics — Division One League 2025

Inter Allies
Inter Allies
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Great Olympics
Great Olympics
9/29/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Inter Allies43%
×Draw29%
Great Olympics28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Allies
1.23
Great Olympics
0.94

Inter Allies creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Inter Allies
1.67
Great Olympics
0.60

allows per match

Inter Allies
1.27
Great Olympics
0.80

finishing

Inter Allies+0.00on par
Great Olympics+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Allies ↓

Great Olympics →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Inter Allies or draw
72%
Inter Allies or Great Olympics
71%
Draw or Great Olympics
57%

Winning margin

Inter Allies wins by 2+
19%
Great Olympics wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Inter Allies 1+ goals
71%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
35%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
13%
Great Olympics 1+ goals
61%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
24%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Inter Allies (draw refunded)
60%
Great Olympics (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Allies at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Great Olympics away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Allies attack 1.67 + Great Olympics defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.23

Great Olympics attack 0.60 + Inter Allies defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Inter Allies scores more
43%
level
29%
Great Olympics scores more
28%

Inter Allies at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Inter Allies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Allies vs Great Olympics

Inter Allies and Great Olympics drew 1-1 in Division One League on September 29, 2025.