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Great Olympics vs Inter Allies — Premier League 2019

Great Olympics
Great Olympics
FT
1 – 0
Inter Allies
Inter Allies
A. Munasiru 77'
5/22/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Great Olympics56%
×Draw27%
Inter Allies17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Great Olympics
1.42
Inter Allies
0.63

Great Olympics creates 125% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 31 away

creates per match

Great Olympics
1.26
Inter Allies
0.61

allows per match

Great Olympics
0.64
Inter Allies
1.58

finishing

Great Olympics+0.00on par
Inter Allies+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Olympics ↓

Inter Allies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Great Olympics or draw
83%
Great Olympics or Inter Allies
73%
Draw or Inter Allies
44%

Winning margin

Great Olympics wins by 2+
28%
Inter Allies wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Great Olympics 1+ goals
76%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
41%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
17%
Inter Allies 1+ goals
47%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
13%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Great Olympics (draw refunded)
77%
Inter Allies (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Olympics at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.64 · 77 matches

Inter Allies away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Olympics attack 1.26 + Inter Allies defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

Inter Allies attack 0.61 + Great Olympics defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Great Olympics scores more
56%
level
27%
Inter Allies scores more
17%

Great Olympics at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Great Olympics will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
63'
S. Nafiu
68'
A. Aso
69'
A. Richard← A. Richard
74'
K. Sunday← K. Sunday
77'
A. Munasiru
80'
S. Taufiq← S. Taufiq
81'
Badu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Great Olympics vs Inter Allies

Great Olympics beat Inter Allies 1-0 in Premier League on May 22, 2021.

Goals: A. Munasiru (77').

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.