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Inter Allies vs Elmina Sharks — Premier League 2019

Inter Allies
Inter Allies
FT
2 – 0
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
A. Okpe 78' (pen)
S. Armah 49' (pen)
5/9/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Inter Allies56%
×Draw25%
Elmina Sharks19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Allies
1.58
Elmina Sharks
0.79

Inter Allies creates 100% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 41 away

creates per match

Inter Allies
1.41
Elmina Sharks
0.59

allows per match

Inter Allies
1.00
Elmina Sharks
1.76

finishing

Inter Allies+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Allies ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Inter Allies or draw
81%
Inter Allies or Elmina Sharks
75%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
44%

Winning margin

Inter Allies wins by 2+
30%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Inter Allies 1+ goals
79%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
47%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
21%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
55%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
19%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Inter Allies (draw refunded)
75%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Allies at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Allies attack 1.41 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.58

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Inter Allies defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Inter Allies scores more
56%
level
25%
Elmina Sharks scores more
19%

Inter Allies at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Inter Allies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
40'
48'
J. Nyamekye← J. Nyamekye
49'
S. ArmahPenalty
56'
58'
B. Boateng← B. Boateng
63'
73'
75'
K. Sunday← K. Sunday
76'
78'
A. OkpePenalty
85'
H. Musah← H. Musah
90'
R. Sogbadzi← R. Sogbadzi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Inter Allies 2–0 Elmina Sharks

Inter Allies beat Elmina Sharks 2-0 in Premier League on May 9, 2021.

Goals: S. Armah (49' pen), A. Okpe (78' pen).

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.