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Elmina Sharks vs Inter Allies — Premier League 2019

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
1 – 0
Inter Allies
Inter Allies
4/11/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Elmina Sharks51%
×Draw27%
Inter Allies21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.42
Inter Allies
0.81

Elmina Sharks creates 75% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 31 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.25
Inter Allies
0.61

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
1.02
Inter Allies
1.58

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
Inter Allies+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Inter Allies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
79%
Elmina Sharks or Inter Allies
73%
Draw or Inter Allies
49%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
25%
Inter Allies wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
76%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
41%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
17%
Inter Allies 1+ goals
56%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
19%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
71%
Inter Allies (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Inter Allies away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.25 + Inter Allies defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

Inter Allies attack 0.61 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
51%
level
27%
Inter Allies scores more
21%

Elmina Sharks at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Elmina Sharks 1–0 Inter Allies

Elmina Sharks beat Inter Allies 1-0 in Premier League on April 11, 2018.

The match was played at Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium in Elmina.