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Inter Allies vs Eleven Wonders — Premier League 2019

Inter Allies
Inter Allies
FT
1 – 0
Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
1/3/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Inter Allies53%
×Draw25%
Eleven Wonders22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Allies
1.58
Eleven Wonders
0.91

Inter Allies creates 74% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 58 away

creates per match

Inter Allies
1.38
Eleven Wonders
0.60

allows per match

Inter Allies
1.21
Eleven Wonders
1.79

finishing

Inter Allies+0.00on par
Eleven Wonders+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Allies ↓

Eleven Wonders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Inter Allies or draw
78%
Inter Allies or Eleven Wonders
75%
Draw or Eleven Wonders
47%

Winning margin

Inter Allies wins by 2+
28%
Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Inter Allies 1+ goals
79%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
47%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
21%
Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
60%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
23%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Inter Allies (draw refunded)
71%
Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Allies at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Eleven Wonders away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.79 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Allies attack 1.38 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Eleven Wonders attack 0.60 + Inter Allies defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Inter Allies scores more
53%
level
25%
Eleven Wonders scores more
22%

Inter Allies at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Inter Allies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Inter Allies 1–0 Eleven Wonders

Inter Allies beat Eleven Wonders 1-0 in Premier League on January 3, 2021.

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.