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Eleven Wonders vs Inter Allies — Premier League 2019

Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
FT
1 – 1
Inter Allies
Inter Allies
5/12/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Eleven Wonders46%
×Draw29%
Inter Allies25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eleven Wonders
1.29
Inter Allies
0.87

Eleven Wonders creates 48% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 24 away

creates per match

Eleven Wonders
1.05
Inter Allies
0.71

allows per match

Eleven Wonders
1.03
Inter Allies
1.54

finishing

Eleven Wonders+0.00on par
Inter Allies+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wonders ↓

Inter Allies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Eleven Wonders or draw
75%
Eleven Wonders or Inter Allies
71%
Draw or Inter Allies
54%

Winning margin

Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
21%
Inter Allies wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
72%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
37%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
14%
Inter Allies 1+ goals
58%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
22%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
65%
Inter Allies (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wonders at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Inter Allies away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wonders attack 1.05 + Inter Allies defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Inter Allies attack 0.71 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eleven Wonders scores more
46%
level
29%
Inter Allies scores more
25%

Eleven Wonders at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Eleven Wonders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eleven Wonders vs Inter Allies

Eleven Wonders and Inter Allies drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Ohene Ameyaw Park in Techiman.