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Inter Allies vs Ashanti Gold — Premier League 2019

Inter Allies
Inter Allies
FT
1 – 1
Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
R. Lamptey 62'
D. Boadu 76'
3/5/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Inter Allies48%
×Draw27%
Ashanti Gold25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Allies
1.39
Ashanti Gold
0.92

Inter Allies creates 51% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 45 away

creates per match

Inter Allies
1.41
Ashanti Gold
0.84

allows per match

Inter Allies
1.00
Ashanti Gold
1.36

finishing

Inter Allies+0.00on par
Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Allies ↓

Ashanti Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Inter Allies or draw
75%
Inter Allies or Ashanti Gold
73%
Draw or Ashanti Gold
52%

Winning margin

Inter Allies wins by 2+
23%
Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Inter Allies 1+ goals
75%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
40%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
16%
Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
60%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
23%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Inter Allies (draw refunded)
66%
Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Allies at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Allies attack 1.41 + Ashanti Gold defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ashanti Gold attack 0.84 + Inter Allies defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Inter Allies scores more
48%
level
27%
Ashanti Gold scores more
25%

Inter Allies at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Inter Allies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
K. Sunday← K. Sunday
36'
R. Seidu
45'
F. Abuska
55'
R. Lamptey← R. Lamptey
57'
E. Obeng
62'
R. Lamptey
65'
D. Boadu← D. Boadu
68'
K. S. Osei← K. S. Osei
73'
H. Musah← H. Musah
76'
D. Boadu
77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Inter Allies 1–1 Ashanti Gold

Inter Allies and Ashanti Gold drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 5, 2021.

Goals: R. Lamptey (62'), D. Boadu (76').

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.