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Ashanti Gold vs Inter Allies — Premier League 2019

Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
FT
1 – 0
Inter Allies
Inter Allies
4/21/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ashanti Gold64%
×Draw24%
Inter Allies13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashanti Gold
1.67
Inter Allies
0.59

Ashanti Gold creates 183% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ashanti Gold
1.76
Inter Allies
0.61

allows per match

Ashanti Gold
0.57
Inter Allies
1.58

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par
Inter Allies+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

Inter Allies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw
87%
Ashanti Gold or Inter Allies
76%
Draw or Inter Allies
36%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
36%
Inter Allies wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
81%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
50%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
23%
Inter Allies 1+ goals
45%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
12%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
83%
Inter Allies (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.57 · 46 matches

Inter Allies away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.76 + Inter Allies defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Inter Allies attack 0.61 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more
64%
level
24%
Inter Allies scores more
13%

Ashanti Gold at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ashanti Gold 1–0 Inter Allies

Ashanti Gold beat Inter Allies 1-0 in Premier League on April 21, 2018.

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.