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Inter Allies vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

Inter Allies
Inter Allies
FT
2 – 3
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
A. Okpe 64'
A. Aso 36'
A. K. Appau 70'
E. Adomako 41'
E. Gyamfi 26'
6/14/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Inter Allies39%
×Draw29%
Asante Kotoko31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Allies
1.16
Asante Kotoko
1.00

Inter Allies creates 16% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 109 away

creates per match

Inter Allies
1.44
Asante Kotoko
0.84

allows per match

Inter Allies
1.16
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

Inter Allies+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Allies ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Inter Allies or draw
69%
Inter Allies or Asante Kotoko
71%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
61%

Winning margin

Inter Allies wins by 2+
17%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Inter Allies 1+ goals
69%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
32%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
11%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
63%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
26%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Inter Allies (draw refunded)
56%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Allies at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.87 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Allies attack 1.44 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.16

Asante Kotoko attack 0.84 + Inter Allies defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Inter Allies scores more
39%
level
29%
Asante Kotoko scores more
31%

Inter Allies at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Inter Allies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
E. Gyamfi
36'
A. Aso
41'
E. Adomako
46'
I. Ganiyu← M. Yussif
50'
61'
E. Adomako← S. Safo-Taylor
64'
A. Okpe
70'
A. K. Appau
80'
90+3'
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Inter Allies 2–3 Asante Kotoko

Asante Kotoko beat Inter Allies 3-2 in Premier League on June 14, 2021.

Goals: E. Gyamfi (26'), A. Aso (36'), E. Adomako (41'), A. Okpe (64'), A. K. Appau (70').

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.