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Asante Kotoko vs Inter Allies — Premier League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
1 – 0
Inter Allies
Inter Allies
N. Keita 68' (pen)
2/3/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Asante Kotoko60%
×Draw25%
Inter Allies15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.56
Inter Allies
0.63

Asante Kotoko creates 148% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 29 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.47
Inter Allies
0.62

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.64
Inter Allies
1.66

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Inter Allies+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Inter Allies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
85%
Asante Kotoko or Inter Allies
75%
Draw or Inter Allies
40%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
32%
Inter Allies wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
79%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
46%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
21%
Inter Allies 1+ goals
47%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
13%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
80%
Inter Allies (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.64 · 109 matches

Inter Allies away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Inter Allies defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.56

Inter Allies attack 0.62 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
60%
level
25%
Inter Allies scores more
15%

Asante Kotoko at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
A. Latif
64'
E. Adjetey← E. Adjetey
67'
M. Zakari← M. Zakari
68'
N. KeitaPenalty
71'
S. Mudasiru← S. Mudasiru
73'
F. Abuska← F. Abuska
80'
A. Okrah← A. Okrah
88'
F. Ibrahim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Asante Kotoko 1–0 Inter Allies

Asante Kotoko beat Inter Allies 1-0 in Premier League on February 3, 2021.

Goals: N. Keita (68' pen).

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.