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Instituto Res. vs Banfield Res. — Reserve League 2022

Instituto Res.
Instituto Res.
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Banfield Res.
Banfield Res.
3/17/2026Reserve LeagueReserve League · Apertura - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Instituto Res.43%
×Draw30%
Banfield Res.27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Instituto Res.
1.15
Banfield Res.
0.85

Instituto Res. creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 62 away

creates per match

Instituto Res.
1.03
Banfield Res.
0.89

allows per match

Instituto Res.
0.82
Banfield Res.
1.26

finishing

Instituto Res.+0.00on par
Banfield Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Res. ↓

Banfield Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Instituto Res. or draw
73%
Instituto Res. or Banfield Res.
70%
Draw or Banfield Res.
57%

Winning margin

Instituto Res. wins by 2+
18%
Banfield Res. wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Instituto Res. 1+ goals
68%
Instituto Res. 2+ goals
32%
Instituto Res. 3+ goals
11%
Banfield Res. 1+ goals
57%
Banfield Res. 2+ goals
21%
Banfield Res. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Instituto Res. (draw refunded)
61%
Banfield Res. (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Res. at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Banfield Res. away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.26 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Res. attack 1.03 + Banfield Res. defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Banfield Res. attack 0.89 + Instituto Res. defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Instituto Res. scores more
43%
level
30%
Banfield Res. scores more
27%

Instituto Res. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Instituto Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Instituto Res. vs Banfield Res.

Instituto Res. beat Banfield Res. 2-0 in Reserve League on March 17, 2026.