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Banfield Res. vs Instituto Res. — Reserve League 2022

Banfield Res.
Banfield Res.
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Instituto Res.
Instituto Res.
8/1/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Banfield Res.39%
×Draw30%
Instituto Res.30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banfield Res.
1.10
Instituto Res.
0.92

Banfield Res. creates 20% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 41 away

creates per match

Banfield Res.
1.22
Instituto Res.
0.90

allows per match

Banfield Res.
0.93
Instituto Res.
0.98

finishing

Banfield Res.+0.00on par
Instituto Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banfield Res. ↓

Instituto Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Banfield Res. or draw
70%
Banfield Res. or Instituto Res.
70%
Draw or Instituto Res.
61%

Winning margin

Banfield Res. wins by 2+
16%
Instituto Res. wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Banfield Res. 1+ goals
67%
Banfield Res. 2+ goals
30%
Banfield Res. 3+ goals
10%
Instituto Res. 1+ goals
60%
Instituto Res. 2+ goals
23%
Instituto Res. 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Banfield Res. (draw refunded)
57%
Instituto Res. (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banfield Res. at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

Instituto Res. away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.98 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banfield Res. attack 1.22 + Instituto Res. defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Instituto Res. attack 0.90 + Banfield Res. defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Banfield Res. scores more
39%
level
30%
Instituto Res. scores more
30%

Banfield Res. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Banfield Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reserve League: Banfield Res. 2–1 Instituto Res.

Banfield Res. beat Instituto Res. 2-1 in Reserve League on August 1, 2024.