Instituto Cordoba 1–1 Banfield: Result & Stats

Instituto Cordoba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Banfield

J. Varela 90+8'

J. Bisanz 43' (pen)

4/23/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 13Estadio Juan Domingo Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Instituto Cordoba49%

×Draw29%

Banfield22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Instituto CordobaExpected goals in this matchBanfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.76

Instituto Cordoba

1.28

Banfield

0.76

Instituto Cordoba creates 68% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.30

creates per match

0.82

0.71

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Instituto Cordoba

1.30

Banfield

0.82

allows per match

Instituto Cordoba

0.71

Banfield

1.26

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Instituto Cordoba-0.12scores less

Banfield-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Cordoba ↓

Banfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Instituto Cordoba or draw

78%

Instituto Cordoba or Banfield

71%

Draw or Banfield

51%

Winning margin

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

23%

Banfield wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

72%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

37%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

14%

Banfield 1+ goals

53%

Banfield 2+ goals

18%

Banfield 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

69%

Banfield (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Cordoba at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.71 · 11 matches

Banfield away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.26 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Cordoba attack 1.30 + Banfield defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.28

Banfield attack 0.82 + Instituto Cordoba defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Instituto Cordoba scores more

49%

level

29%

Banfield scores more

22%

Instituto Cordoba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Instituto Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

J. Varela

Instituto Cordoba · D

7.7

Match Events

35'

Juan Bizans

40'

Juan BizansPenalty confirmed

43'

J. BisanzPenalty

45'

Fernando Alarcón

46'

G. Graciani← N. Linares

62'

Aarón Quirós

65'

B. Alemán← I. Rodríguez

71'

N. Sosa← J. Bisanz

71'

M. Giménez← A. Chávez

76'

L. Albertengo← B. Cuello

85'

J. Varela← J. Franco

85'

N. Barrientos← S. Corda

87'

N. Bertolo← E. Remedi

87'

E. Insúa← P. Souto

90'

Leonel Mosevich

90+3'

A. Rodríguez← G. Lodico

90+8'

J. Varela↳ N. Barrientos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InstitutoBanfield

Overview

66%Possession34%

15Total Shots11

7Corners1

12Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots11

4On Target5

7Off Target3

4Blocked3

8Inside Box5

7Outside Box6

Passing

66%Possession34%

428Total Passes226

309Accurate Passes126

72%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: Instituto Cordoba 1–1 Banfield

Instituto Cordoba and Banfield drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 23, 2023.

Goals: J. Bisanz (43' pen), J. Varela (90+8').

Instituto Cordoba controlled possession (66%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Domingo Perón in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.

Instituto Cordoba vs Banfield — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Instituto Cordoba 1–1 Banfield