Banfield 1–2 Instituto Cordoba: Result & Stats

Banfield

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Instituto Cordoba

L. Garate 70'

D. Puebla 90+5', 45+1'

9/2/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 13Estadio Florencio Solá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Banfield40%

×Draw28%

Instituto Cordoba32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BanfieldExpected goals in this matchInstituto Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.09

Banfield

1.27

Instituto Cordoba

1.09

Banfield creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

1.34

creates per match

0.94

1.25

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Banfield

1.34

Instituto Cordoba

0.94

allows per match

Banfield

1.25

Instituto Cordoba

1.19

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.61scores less than expected

finishing

Banfield-0.27scores less

Instituto Cordoba-0.61scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banfield ↓

Instituto Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Banfield or draw

68%

Banfield or Instituto Cordoba

72%

Draw or Instituto Cordoba

60%

Winning margin

Banfield wins by 2+

18%

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Banfield 1+ goals

72%

Banfield 2+ goals

36%

Banfield 3+ goals

14%

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

66%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

30%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Banfield (draw refunded)

56%

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banfield at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.25 · 15 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banfield attack 1.34 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.94 + Banfield defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Banfield scores more

40%

level

28%

Instituto Cordoba scores more

32%

Banfield at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Banfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

D. Puebla

Instituto Cordoba · M

9.2

Match Events

8'

14'

25'

30'

37'

L. GarateGoal Disallowed - offside

41'

M. De Ritis

45+1'

D. Puebla↳ L. Rodríguez

51'

J. Álvarez← I. Rodríguez

60'

B. Galván← E. Cañete

60'

B. Sepúlveda← J. Bisanz

67'

E. Bonifacio← R. Di Luciano

69'

70'

76'

76'

81'

81'

F. Suárez← G. Rodríguez

81'

J. Lázaro← J. Acevedo

83'

G. A. Lodico

89'

D. Puebla

90+5'

D. Puebla↳ G. Lodico

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BanfieldInstituto

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots22

1.42Expected Goals (xG)2.50

7Corners8

10Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots22

4On Target8

6Off Target10

5Blocked4

13Inside Box15

2Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

338Total Passes364

256Accurate Passes277

76%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

0.22Goals Prevented0.22

Discipline

10Fouls12

3Yellow Cards5

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Banfield vs Instituto Cordoba

Instituto Cordoba beat Banfield 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 2, 2024.

Goals: D. Puebla (45+1', 90+5'), L. Garate (70').

Instituto Cordoba controlled possession (51%) and registered 22 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Florencio Solá in Lomas de Zamora, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Banfield vs Instituto Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Banfield vs Instituto Cordoba