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Insieme Formia vs Aprilia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Insieme Formia
Insieme Formia
FT
0 – 4
Aprilia
Aprilia
11/7/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 8Stadio Comunale di Formia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Insieme Formia29%
×Draw27%
Aprilia44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Insieme Formia
1.09
Aprilia
1.40

Aprilia creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Insieme Formia
0.88
Aprilia
1.09

allows per match

Insieme Formia
1.71
Aprilia
1.30

finishing

Insieme Formia+0.00on par
Aprilia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Insieme Formia ↓

Aprilia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Insieme Formia or draw
56%
Insieme Formia or Aprilia
73%
Draw or Aprilia
71%

Winning margin

Insieme Formia wins by 2+
11%
Aprilia wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Insieme Formia 1+ goals
66%
Insieme Formia 2+ goals
30%
Insieme Formia 3+ goals
10%
Aprilia 1+ goals
75%
Aprilia 2+ goals
41%
Aprilia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Insieme Formia (draw refunded)
40%
Aprilia (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Insieme Formia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Aprilia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Insieme Formia attack 0.88 + Aprilia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Aprilia attack 1.09 + Insieme Formia defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Insieme Formia scores more
29%
level
27%
Aprilia scores more
44%

Aprilia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aprilia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Insieme Formia 0–4 Aprilia

Aprilia beat Insieme Formia 4-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Formia in Formia.