Aprilia 2–3 Insieme Formia: Result & Stats

Aprilia

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Insieme Formia

3/26/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 25Stadio Quinto Ricci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aprilia48%

×Draw25%

Insieme Formia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ApriliaExpected goals in this matchInsieme Formia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.13

Aprilia

1.61

Insieme Formia

1.13

Aprilia creates 42% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

1.17

creates per match

1.06

1.19

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Aprilia

1.17

Insieme Formia

1.06

allows per match

Aprilia

1.19

Insieme Formia

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aprilia+0.00on par

Insieme Formia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aprilia ↓

Insieme Formia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Aprilia or draw

73%

Aprilia or Insieme Formia

75%

Draw or Insieme Formia

52%

Winning margin

Aprilia wins by 2+

25%

Insieme Formia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aprilia 1+ goals

80%

Aprilia 2+ goals

48%

Aprilia 3+ goals

22%

Insieme Formia 1+ goals

68%

Insieme Formia 2+ goals

31%

Insieme Formia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Aprilia (draw refunded)

64%

Insieme Formia (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aprilia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Insieme Formia away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aprilia attack 1.17 + Insieme Formia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.61

Insieme Formia attack 1.06 + Aprilia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aprilia scores more

48%

level

25%

Insieme Formia scores more

27%

Aprilia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aprilia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff