Bahia 4–1 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats

Bahia

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Nautico Recife

7/22/2020

Copa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 8Arena Fonte Nova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Bahia62%

×Draw21%

Nautico Recife17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BahiaExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.98

Bahia

2.04

Nautico Recife

0.98

Bahia creates 108% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

2.33

creates per match

1.20

0.76

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Bahia

2.33

Nautico Recife

1.20

allows per match

Bahia

0.76

Nautico Recife

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bahia or draw

83%

Bahia or Nautico Recife

79%

Draw or Nautico Recife

38%

Winning margin

Bahia wins by 2+

38%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bahia 1+ goals

87%

Bahia 2+ goals

60%

Bahia 3+ goals

33%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

62%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

26%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bahia (draw refunded)

78%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia attack 2.33 + Nautico Recife defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.04

Nautico Recife attack 1.20 + Bahia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bahia scores more

62%

level

21%

Nautico Recife scores more

17%

Bahia at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff