Bahia vs Nautico Recife — Copa do Nordeste 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Bahia62%
Nautico Recife17%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bahia creates 108% more chances
Season form · 33 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bahia ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bahia at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches
Nautico Recife away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bahia attack 2.33 + Nautico Recife defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.04
Nautico Recife attack 1.20 + Bahia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.98
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
Bahia at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "Bahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Vitoria
Sport Recife
Fortaleza EC
Confiança
ABCBahia
Ceara
Retrô
ASA
Sousa
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
Botafogo PB
Juazeirense
CRB
America-RN
Imperatriz
Piauí
CSA
AO Itabaiana
Jacuipense
MaranhãoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bahia host Nautico Recife on Thursday, 11 April 2024 at 00:30. The match is part of the Copa do Nordeste 2020/2021 season.
Copa do Nordeste: Bahia 3–0 Nautico Recife
Bahia beat Nautico Recife 3-0 in Copa do Nordeste on April 11, 2024.
Goals: Thaciano (66'), Ó. Estupiñán (80'), Jean Lucas (86').
The match was played at Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador, Bahia.