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Inner Mongolia Caoshang. vs Dongguan United — League Two 2022

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dongguan United
Dongguan United
7/27/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 6Duyun International Football Town No. 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.10%
×Draw31%
Dongguan United59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.32
Dongguan United
1.21

Dongguan United creates 278% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.14
Dongguan United
1.13

allows per match

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
1.29
Dongguan United
0.50

finishing

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.+0.00on par
Dongguan United+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

81%No
  • No81
  • Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. ↓

Dongguan United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–126%
0–216%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (26%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. or draw
41%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. or Dongguan United
69%
Draw or Dongguan United
90%

Winning margin

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. wins by 2+
1%
Dongguan United wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 1+ goals
27%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 2+ goals
4%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 3+ goals
0%
Dongguan United 1+ goals
70%
Dongguan United 2+ goals
34%
Dongguan United 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. (draw refunded)
14%
Dongguan United (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
11%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. at home — creates 0.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Dongguan United away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. attack 0.14 + Dongguan United defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.32

Dongguan United attack 1.13 + Inner Mongolia Caoshang. defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. scores more
10%
level
31%
Dongguan United scores more
59%

Dongguan United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dongguan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 0–1 Dongguan United

Dongguan United beat Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 1-0 in League Two on July 27, 2022.

The match was played at Duyun International Football Town No. 7 in Duyun.