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Dongguan United vs Inner Mongolia Caoshang. — League Two 2022

Dongguan United
Dongguan United
FT
1 – 0
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
7/2/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 1Duyun International Football Town Field 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dongguan United54%
×Draw28%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dongguan United
1.38
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.66

Dongguan United creates 109% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dongguan United
1.00
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.75

allows per match

Dongguan United
0.57
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
1.75

finishing

Dongguan United+0.00on par
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dongguan United ↓

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dongguan United or draw
82%
Dongguan United or Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
72%
Draw or Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
46%

Winning margin

Dongguan United wins by 2+
27%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dongguan United 1+ goals
75%
Dongguan United 2+ goals
40%
Dongguan United 3+ goals
16%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 1+ goals
48%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 2+ goals
14%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dongguan United (draw refunded)
75%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dongguan United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dongguan United attack 1.00 + Inner Mongolia Caoshang. defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. attack 0.75 + Dongguan United defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dongguan United scores more
54%
level
28%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. scores more
18%

Dongguan United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dongguan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dongguan United vs Inner Mongolia Caoshang.

Dongguan United beat Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 1-0 in League Two on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Duyun International Football Town Field 12 in Duyun.