İnkılapspor 0–5 Çankaya FK: Result & Stats

İnkılapspor

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Çankaya FK

4/5/2026

League #552 · Group 1 - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

İnkılapspor21%

×Draw23%

Çankaya FK55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İnkılapsporExpected goals in this matchÇankaya FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.77

İnkılapspor

1.00

Çankaya FK

1.77

Çankaya FK creates 77% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

0.67

creates per match

1.21

2.33

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

İnkılapspor

0.67

Çankaya FK

1.21

allows per match

İnkılapspor

2.33

Çankaya FK

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İnkılapspor+0.00on par

Çankaya FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İnkılapspor ↓

Çankaya FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

İnkılapspor or draw

45%

İnkılapspor or Çankaya FK

77%

Draw or Çankaya FK

79%

Winning margin

İnkılapspor wins by 2+

8%

Çankaya FK wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

İnkılapspor 1+ goals

63%

İnkılapspor 2+ goals

26%

İnkılapspor 3+ goals

8%

Çankaya FK 1+ goals

83%

Çankaya FK 2+ goals

53%

Çankaya FK 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

İnkılapspor (draw refunded)

28%

Çankaya FK (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İnkılapspor at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Çankaya FK away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İnkılapspor attack 0.67 + Çankaya FK defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.00

Çankaya FK attack 1.21 + İnkılapspor defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

İnkılapspor scores more

21%

level

23%

Çankaya FK scores more

55%

Çankaya FK at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Çankaya FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff