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Çankaya FK vs İnkılapspor — League #552 2026

Çankaya FK
Çankaya FK
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
İnkılapspor
İnkılapspor
S. Ilgaz 70'
U. Gokdemir 45+1'
12/12/2025League #552League #552 · Group 1 - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Çankaya FK29%
×Draw27%
İnkılapspor44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Çankaya FK
1.08
İnkılapspor
1.39

İnkılapspor creates 29% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

creates per match

Çankaya FK
1.42
İnkılapspor
1.25

allows per match

Çankaya FK
1.53
İnkılapspor
0.75

finishing

Çankaya FK+0.00on par
İnkılapspor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çankaya FK ↓

İnkılapspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Çankaya FK or draw
56%
Çankaya FK or İnkılapspor
73%
Draw or İnkılapspor
71%

Winning margin

Çankaya FK wins by 2+
11%
İnkılapspor wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Çankaya FK 1+ goals
66%
Çankaya FK 2+ goals
29%
Çankaya FK 3+ goals
10%
İnkılapspor 1+ goals
75%
İnkılapspor 2+ goals
40%
İnkılapspor 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Çankaya FK (draw refunded)
40%
İnkılapspor (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çankaya FK at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

İnkılapspor away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çankaya FK attack 1.42 + İnkılapspor defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.08

İnkılapspor attack 1.25 + Çankaya FK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Çankaya FK scores more
29%
level
27%
İnkılapspor scores more
44%

İnkılapspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "İnkılapspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
U. Gokdemir
70'
S. Ilgaz↳ K. Demir

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Çankaya FK vs İnkılapspor

Çankaya FK and İnkılapspor drew 1-1 in League #552 on December 12, 2025.

Goals: U. Gokdemir (45+1'), S. Ilgaz (70').