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İnkılapspor vs Beykoz İshaklıspor — League #552 2026

İnkılapspor
İnkılapspor
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Beykoz İshaklıspor
Beykoz İshaklıspor
D. Borak 90+2', 26'
E. Yilmaz 66'
S. Adali 20'
3/7/2026League #552League #552 · Group 1 - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

İnkılapspor24%
×Draw24%
Beykoz İshaklıspor53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İnkılapspor
1.08
Beykoz İshaklıspor
1.73

Beykoz İshaklıspor creates 60% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

İnkılapspor
0.67
Beykoz İshaklıspor
1.13

allows per match

İnkılapspor
2.33
Beykoz İshaklıspor
1.50

finishing

İnkılapspor+0.00on par
Beykoz İshaklıspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İnkılapspor ↓

Beykoz İshaklıspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

İnkılapspor or draw
47%
İnkılapspor or Beykoz İshaklıspor
76%
Draw or Beykoz İshaklıspor
76%

Winning margin

İnkılapspor wins by 2+
9%
Beykoz İshaklıspor wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

İnkılapspor 1+ goals
66%
İnkılapspor 2+ goals
29%
İnkılapspor 3+ goals
10%
Beykoz İshaklıspor 1+ goals
82%
Beykoz İshaklıspor 2+ goals
52%
Beykoz İshaklıspor 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

İnkılapspor (draw refunded)
31%
Beykoz İshaklıspor (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İnkılapspor at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Beykoz İshaklıspor away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İnkılapspor attack 0.67 + Beykoz İshaklıspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Beykoz İshaklıspor attack 1.13 + İnkılapspor defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

İnkılapspor scores more
24%
level
24%
Beykoz İshaklıspor scores more
53%

Beykoz İshaklıspor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Beykoz İshaklıspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
S. Adali↳ M. Baltaci
26'
D. Borak
66'
E. Yilmaz
72'
A. Tasar
72'
A. Tasar
90+2'
D. Borak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #552: İnkılapspor 2–2 Beykoz İshaklıspor

İnkılapspor and Beykoz İshaklıspor drew 2-2 in League #552 on March 7, 2026.

Goals: S. Adali (20'), D. Borak (26', 90+2'), E. Yilmaz (66').