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Beykoz İshaklıspor vs İnkılapspor — League #552 2026

Beykoz İshaklıspor
Beykoz İshaklıspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
İnkılapspor
İnkılapspor
A. Erkin 80'
A. Senturk 60' (pen)
11/2/2025League #552League #552 · Group 1 - 9Alemdağ Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Beykoz İshaklıspor32%
×Draw30%
İnkılapspor38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beykoz İshaklıspor
1.00
İnkılapspor
1.13

İnkılapspor creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Beykoz İshaklıspor
1.25
İnkılapspor
1.25

allows per match

Beykoz İshaklıspor
1.00
İnkılapspor
0.75

finishing

Beykoz İshaklıspor+0.00on par
İnkılapspor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beykoz İshaklıspor ↓

İnkılapspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Beykoz İshaklıspor or draw
62%
Beykoz İshaklıspor or İnkılapspor
70%
Draw or İnkılapspor
68%

Winning margin

Beykoz İshaklıspor wins by 2+
12%
İnkılapspor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Beykoz İshaklıspor 1+ goals
63%
Beykoz İshaklıspor 2+ goals
26%
Beykoz İshaklıspor 3+ goals
8%
İnkılapspor 1+ goals
68%
İnkılapspor 2+ goals
31%
İnkılapspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Beykoz İshaklıspor (draw refunded)
45%
İnkılapspor (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beykoz İshaklıspor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

İnkılapspor away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beykoz İshaklıspor attack 1.25 + İnkılapspor defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

İnkılapspor attack 1.25 + Beykoz İshaklıspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beykoz İshaklıspor scores more
32%
level
30%
İnkılapspor scores more
38%

İnkılapspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "İnkılapspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
A. SenturkPenalty
80'
A. Erkin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beykoz İshaklıspor vs İnkılapspor

Beykoz İshaklıspor and İnkılapspor drew 1-1 in League #552 on November 2, 2025.

Goals: A. Senturk (60' pen), A. Erkin (80').

The match was played at Alemdağ Stadyumu in İstanbul.