Ingolstadt U19 1–1 Hoffenheim U19: Result & Stats

Ingolstadt U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hoffenheim U19

D. Sekulovic 74' (pen)

D. Dağdeviren 30'

3/4/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 16Audi Sportpark - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Ingolstadt U1935%

×Draw21%

Hoffenheim U1944%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ingolstadt U19Expected goals in this matchHoffenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.10

Ingolstadt U19

1.88

Hoffenheim U19

2.10

Hoffenheim U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 76 away

2.01

creates per match

2.79

1.41

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Ingolstadt U19

2.01

Hoffenheim U19

2.79

allows per match

Ingolstadt U19

1.41

Hoffenheim U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Ingolstadt U19 or draw

56%

Ingolstadt U19 or Hoffenheim U19

79%

Draw or Hoffenheim U19

65%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

18%

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

85%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

56%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

29%

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

88%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

62%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt U19 at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.75 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.01 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.79 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

35%

level

21%

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

44%

Hoffenheim U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

D. Dağdeviren

57'

M. Ham← M. Udebuluzor

57'

M. Plath← E. Gül

68'

M. Rehuš← P. Hennrich

74'

D. SekulovicPenalty

80'

B. Huber← Y. Hör

83'

D. Zeitler← M. Wiezorrek

85'

A. Camara← L. Gebauer

85'

N. Sørensen← D. Obiogumu

90+1'

B. Causevic← M. Ham

Ingolstadt

Hoffenheim

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: S. Wittmann

57'▲M. Ham←▼M. Udebuluzor

57'▲M. Plath←▼E. Gül

83'▲D. Zeitler←▼M. Wiezorrek

90+1'▲B. Causevic←▼M. Ham

Ingolstadt U19 substitutes

HamPlathZeitlerCausevicKuqanajPirkuBock

Manager: S. Lerch

68'▲M. Rehuš←▼P. Hennrich

80'▲B. Huber←▼Y. Hör

85'▲A. Camara←▼L. Gebauer

85'▲N. Sørensen←▼D. Obiogumu

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

RehušHuberCamaraSørensenTamarezDoucouré-TandiangPhilipp

Match Recap: Ingolstadt U19 vs Hoffenheim U19

Ingolstadt U19 and Hoffenheim U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 4, 2023.

Goals: D. Dağdeviren (30'), D. Sekulovic (74' pen).

The match was played at Audi Sportpark - Platz 5 in Ingolstadt.

Ingolstadt U19 vs Hoffenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ingolstadt U19 vs Hoffenheim U19