Hoffenheim U19 1–2 Ingolstadt U19: Result & Stats

Hoffenheim U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ingolstadt U19

L. Lechner 60' (OG)

E. Gül 69'

B. Öztürk 22'

4/6/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 21Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Hoffenheim U1953%

×Draw19%

Ingolstadt U1927%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hoffenheim U19Expected goals in this matchIngolstadt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.73

Hoffenheim U19

2.44

Ingolstadt U19

1.73

Hoffenheim U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 73 away

3.17

creates per match

2.10

1.36

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Hoffenheim U19

3.17

Ingolstadt U19

2.10

allows per match

Hoffenheim U19

1.36

Ingolstadt U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim U19 ↓

Ingolstadt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Hoffenheim U19 or draw

73%

Hoffenheim U19 or Ingolstadt U19

81%

Draw or Ingolstadt U19

47%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

33%

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

91%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

70%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

43%

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

82%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

52%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim U19 at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.36 · 78 matches

Ingolstadt U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.71 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.17 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.44

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.10 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

53%

level

19%

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

27%

Hoffenheim U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

B. Öztürk

46'

M. Moore← M. Rehuš

60'

L. LechnerOwn goal

69'

E. Gül

74'

J. Wähling← M. Moerstedt

80'

R. Wagner← L. Krasniqi

80'

J. Osei-Tutu← B. Berk

80'

M. Ham← L. Klanac

87'

H. Daut← B. Öztürk

88'

A. Seifert← O. Drakulic

90'

D. Dagdeviren

90'

D. Dagdeviren

Hoffenheim

Ingolstadt

🥅

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Manager: T. Nubbemeyer

46'▲M. Moore←▼M. Rehuš

74'▲J. Wähling←▼M. Moerstedt

80'▲R. Wagner←▼L. Krasniqi

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

MooreWählingWagnerGirmannPhilippMaier

Manager: S. Wittmann

80'▲J. Osei-Tutu←▼B. Berk

80'▲M. Ham←▼L. Klanac

87'▲H. Daut←▼B. Öztürk

88'▲A. Seifert←▼O. Drakulic

Ingolstadt U19 substitutes

Osei-TutuHamDautSeifertNnokosonPollakHuber