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Ingolstadt II vs Hallbergmoos-Goldach — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hallbergmoos-Goldach
Hallbergmoos-Goldach
9/23/2022Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 13BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ingolstadt II65%
×Draw19%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
2.24
Hallbergmoos-Goldach
1.00

Ingolstadt II creates 124% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.06
Hallbergmoos-Goldach
1.00

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.00
Hallbergmoos-Goldach
2.41

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
Hallbergmoos-Goldach+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Hallbergmoos-Goldach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
84%
Ingolstadt II or Hallbergmoos-Goldach
81%
Draw or Hallbergmoos-Goldach
35%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
42%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
89%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
65%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
38%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach 1+ goals
63%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach 2+ goals
26%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
81%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Hallbergmoos-Goldach away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.06 + Hallbergmoos-Goldach defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.24

Hallbergmoos-Goldach attack 1.00 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
65%
level
19%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach scores more
16%

Ingolstadt II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Ingolstadt II 4–1 Hallbergmoos-Goldach

Ingolstadt II beat Hallbergmoos-Goldach 4-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on September 23, 2022.

The match was played at BZA Süd-Ost in Ingolstadt.