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Hallbergmoos-Goldach vs Ingolstadt II — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Hallbergmoos-Goldach
Hallbergmoos-Goldach
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
4/28/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 30Sportpark Hallbergmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hallbergmoos-Goldach22%
×Draw22%
Ingolstadt II56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hallbergmoos-Goldach
1.18
Ingolstadt II
1.98

Ingolstadt II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hallbergmoos-Goldach
1.06
Ingolstadt II
1.71

allows per match

Hallbergmoos-Goldach
2.24
Ingolstadt II
1.29

finishing

Hallbergmoos-Goldach+0.00on par
Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallbergmoos-Goldach ↓

Ingolstadt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hallbergmoos-Goldach or draw
44%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach or Ingolstadt II
78%
Draw or Ingolstadt II
78%

Winning margin

Hallbergmoos-Goldach wins by 2+
9%
Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Hallbergmoos-Goldach 1+ goals
69%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach 2+ goals
33%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach 3+ goals
12%
Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
86%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
59%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Hallbergmoos-Goldach (draw refunded)
29%
Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallbergmoos-Goldach at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallbergmoos-Goldach attack 1.06 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ingolstadt II attack 1.71 + Hallbergmoos-Goldach defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hallbergmoos-Goldach scores more
22%
level
22%
Ingolstadt II scores more
56%

Ingolstadt II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Hallbergmoos-Goldach 1–1 Ingolstadt II

Hallbergmoos-Goldach and Ingolstadt II drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 28, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Hallbergmoos in Hallbergmoos.