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Ingolstadt II vs Eintracht Münchberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
V. Hoti 70'
M. Ham 61', 13'
A. Kuqanaj 54'
L. Kohler 90'
J. Huttemann 56'
F. Seifert 5'
8/18/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 7BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ingolstadt II65%
×Draw18%
Eintracht Münchberg17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
2.49
Eintracht Münchberg
1.22

Ingolstadt II creates 104% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.27
Eintracht Münchberg
0.94

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.50
Eintracht Münchberg
2.71

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Eintracht Münchberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
83%
Ingolstadt II or Eintracht Münchberg
82%
Draw or Eintracht Münchberg
35%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
43%
Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
92%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
71%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
45%
Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
70%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
34%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
79%
Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Eintracht Münchberg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.27 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.49

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.94 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
65%
level
18%
Eintracht Münchberg scores more
17%

Ingolstadt II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
F. Seifert
13'
M. Ham
54'
A. Kuqanaj
56'
J. Huttemann
61'
M. Ham
70'
V. Hoti
90'
L. Kohler
90+1'
M. Agostinelli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Ingolstadt II 4–3 Eintracht Münchberg

Ingolstadt II beat Eintracht Münchberg 4-3 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 18, 2024.

Goals: F. Seifert (5'), M. Ham (13', 61'), A. Kuqanaj (54'), J. Huttemann (56'), V. Hoti (70'), L. Kohler (90').

The match was played at BZA Süd-Ost in Ingolstadt.