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Eintracht Münchberg vs Ingolstadt II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
Unknown 83' (OG)
J. Osei-Tutu 52', 17'
D. Sekulovic 45+1'
3/8/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 24FORTUNA-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Münchberg23%
×Draw22%
Ingolstadt II56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Münchberg
1.20
Ingolstadt II
1.99

Ingolstadt II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Eintracht Münchberg
0.82
Ingolstadt II
1.80

allows per match

Eintracht Münchberg
2.18
Ingolstadt II
1.57

finishing

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par
Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Münchberg ↓

Ingolstadt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Eintracht Münchberg or draw
44%
Eintracht Münchberg or Ingolstadt II
78%
Draw or Ingolstadt II
77%

Winning margin

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
9%
Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
70%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
34%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
12%
Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
86%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
59%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
29%
Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Münchberg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.82 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.20

Ingolstadt II attack 1.80 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Eintracht Münchberg scores more
23%
level
22%
Ingolstadt II scores more
56%

Ingolstadt II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
J. Osei-Tutu
45+1'
D. Sekulovic
52'
J. Osei-Tutu
83'
Own goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eintracht Münchberg 0 – 4 Ingolstadt II

Ingolstadt II beat Eintracht Münchberg 4-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 8, 2025.

Goals: J. Osei-Tutu (17', 52'), D. Sekulovic (45+1'), ? (83' o.g.).

The match was played at FORTUNA-ARENA in Münchberg.