Ingolstadt II 1–2 ATSV Erlangen: Result & Stats

Ingolstadt II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

ATSV Erlangen

9/7/2025

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 9BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ingolstadt II53%

×Draw22%

ATSV Erlangen25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ingolstadt IIExpected goals in this matchATSV Erlangen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.30

Ingolstadt II

1.97

ATSV Erlangen

1.30

Ingolstadt II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

2.24

creates per match

1.15

1.45

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Ingolstadt II

2.24

ATSV Erlangen

1.15

allows per match

Ingolstadt II

1.45

ATSV Erlangen

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

ATSV Erlangen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw

75%

Ingolstadt II or ATSV Erlangen

78%

Draw or ATSV Erlangen

47%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+

31%

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals

86%

Ingolstadt II 2+ goals

58%

Ingolstadt II 3+ goals

31%

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals

73%

ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals

37%

ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)

68%

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.24 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.97

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more

53%

level

22%

ATSV Erlangen scores more

25%

Ingolstadt II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff