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ATSV Erlangen vs Ingolstadt II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
11/10/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 21Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ATSV Erlangen40%
×Draw23%
Ingolstadt II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATSV Erlangen
1.68
Ingolstadt II
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.78
Ingolstadt II
1.80

allows per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.37
Ingolstadt II
1.57

finishing

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par
Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATSV Erlangen ↓

Ingolstadt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

ATSV Erlangen or draw
64%
ATSV Erlangen or Ingolstadt II
77%
Draw or Ingolstadt II
60%

Winning margin

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
21%
Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
81%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
50%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
24%
Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
79%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
47%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
53%
Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATSV Erlangen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.78 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.68

Ingolstadt II attack 1.80 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ATSV Erlangen scores more
40%
level
23%
Ingolstadt II scores more
36%

ATSV Erlangen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ATSV Erlangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ATSV Erlangen vs Ingolstadt II

ATSV Erlangen beat Ingolstadt II 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse in Erlangen.