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Inglewood United vs Gosnells City — Western Australia State League 1 2024

Inglewood United
Inglewood United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gosnells City
Gosnells City
8/1/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 19Proto DPS Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Inglewood United54%
×Draw24%
Gosnells City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inglewood United
1.71
Gosnells City
0.98

Inglewood United creates 74% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 22 away

creates per match

Inglewood United
1.15
Gosnells City
0.91

allows per match

Inglewood United
1.05
Gosnells City
2.27

finishing

Inglewood United+0.00on par
Gosnells City+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inglewood United ↓

Gosnells City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Inglewood United or draw
78%
Inglewood United or Gosnells City
76%
Draw or Gosnells City
46%

Winning margin

Inglewood United wins by 2+
30%
Gosnells City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Inglewood United 1+ goals
82%
Inglewood United 2+ goals
51%
Inglewood United 3+ goals
24%
Gosnells City 1+ goals
62%
Gosnells City 2+ goals
26%
Gosnells City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Inglewood United (draw refunded)
72%
Gosnells City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inglewood United at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Gosnells City away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inglewood United attack 1.15 + Gosnells City defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.71

Gosnells City attack 0.91 + Inglewood United defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Inglewood United scores more
54%
level
24%
Gosnells City scores more
22%

Inglewood United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Inglewood United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Inglewood United 2–1 Gosnells City

Inglewood United beat Gosnells City 2-1 in Western Australia State League 1 on August 1, 2025.

The match was played at Proto DPS Stadium in Perth.