Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gosnells City vs Inglewood United — Western Australia State League 1 2024

Gosnells City
Gosnells City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Inglewood United
Inglewood United
5/17/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 8Walter Padbury Reserve A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gosnells City38%
×Draw23%
Inglewood United40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gosnells City
1.70
Inglewood United
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gosnells City
1.23
Inglewood United
1.11

allows per match

Gosnells City
2.41
Inglewood United
2.17

finishing

Gosnells City+0.00on par
Inglewood United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gosnells City ↓

Inglewood United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Gosnells City or draw
60%
Gosnells City or Inglewood United
77%
Draw or Inglewood United
62%

Winning margin

Gosnells City wins by 2+
19%
Inglewood United wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gosnells City 1+ goals
82%
Gosnells City 2+ goals
51%
Gosnells City 3+ goals
24%
Inglewood United 1+ goals
83%
Inglewood United 2+ goals
52%
Inglewood United 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Gosnells City (draw refunded)
48%
Inglewood United (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gosnells City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.41 · 22 matches

Inglewood United away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gosnells City attack 1.23 + Inglewood United defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.70

Inglewood United attack 1.11 + Gosnells City defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gosnells City scores more
38%
level
23%
Inglewood United scores more
40%

Inglewood United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Inglewood United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Gosnells City 3–1 Inglewood United

Gosnells City beat Inglewood United 3-1 in Western Australia State League 1 on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Walter Padbury Reserve A in Thornlie.