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Inglewood United vs ECU Joondalup — Western Australia NPL 2019

Inglewood United
Inglewood United
FT
2 – 1
ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
7/11/2020Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 2Perth Plasterboard Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Inglewood United36%
×Draw25%
ECU Joondalup39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inglewood United
1.37
ECU Joondalup
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 33 away

creates per match

Inglewood United
1.38
ECU Joondalup
1.33

allows per match

Inglewood United
1.55
ECU Joondalup
1.36

finishing

Inglewood United+0.00on par
ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inglewood United ↓

ECU Joondalup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Inglewood United or draw
61%
Inglewood United or ECU Joondalup
75%
Draw or ECU Joondalup
64%

Winning margin

Inglewood United wins by 2+
16%
ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Inglewood United 1+ goals
75%
Inglewood United 2+ goals
40%
Inglewood United 3+ goals
16%
ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
76%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
42%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Inglewood United (draw refunded)
48%
ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inglewood United at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inglewood United attack 1.38 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

ECU Joondalup attack 1.33 + Inglewood United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Inglewood United scores more
36%
level
25%
ECU Joondalup scores more
39%

ECU Joondalup at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inglewood United vs ECU Joondalup

Inglewood United beat ECU Joondalup 2-1 in Western Australia NPL on July 11, 2020.

The match was played at Perth Plasterboard Centre Stadium in Perth.