ECU Joondalup 2–2 Inglewood United: Result & Stats

ECU Joondalup

FT

2 – 2

Inglewood United

8/25/2021

Western Australia NPL · Round 14BGC Stadium - Dorrien Gardens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

ECU Joondalup47%

×Draw22%

Inglewood United31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ECU JoondalupExpected goals in this matchInglewood United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.61

ECU Joondalup

2.02

Inglewood United

1.61

ECU Joondalup creates 25% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 65 away

1.94

creates per match

1.74

1.48

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

ECU Joondalup

1.94

Inglewood United

1.74

allows per match

ECU Joondalup

1.48

Inglewood United

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Inglewood United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECU Joondalup ↓

Inglewood United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

ECU Joondalup or draw

69%

ECU Joondalup or Inglewood United

78%

Draw or Inglewood United

53%

Winning margin

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+

27%

Inglewood United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals

87%

ECU Joondalup 2+ goals

60%

ECU Joondalup 3+ goals

33%

Inglewood United 1+ goals

80%

Inglewood United 2+ goals

48%

Inglewood United 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)

60%

Inglewood United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECU Joondalup at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Inglewood United away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.11 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECU Joondalup attack 1.94 + Inglewood United defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.02

Inglewood United attack 1.74 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ECU Joondalup scores more

47%

level

22%

Inglewood United scores more

31%

ECU Joondalup at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff