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İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik vs Çorluspor 1947 — League #552 2026

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Çorluspor 1947
Çorluspor 1947
Y. Kaplan 61'
T. Oruc 20', 5'
M. Arslantas 89'
M. Khalil 2'
3/14/2026League #552League #552 · Group 1 - 25İnegöl İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik24%
×Draw20%
Çorluspor 194755%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
1.42
Çorluspor 1947
2.21

Çorluspor 1947 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
1.50
Çorluspor 1947
3.67

allows per match

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
0.75
Çorluspor 1947
1.33

finishing

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik+0.00on par
Çorluspor 1947+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik ↓

Çorluspor 1947 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik or draw
45%
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik or Çorluspor 1947
80%
Draw or Çorluspor 1947
76%

Winning margin

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik wins by 2+
11%
Çorluspor 1947 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 1+ goals
76%
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 2+ goals
41%
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 3+ goals
17%
Çorluspor 1947 1+ goals
89%
Çorluspor 1947 2+ goals
65%
Çorluspor 1947 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik (draw refunded)
31%
Çorluspor 1947 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Çorluspor 1947 away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik attack 1.50 + Çorluspor 1947 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Çorluspor 1947 attack 3.67 + İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik scores more
24%
level
20%
Çorluspor 1947 scores more
55%

Çorluspor 1947 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Çorluspor 1947 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
M. Khalil
5'
T. Oruc
20'
T. Oruc↳ F. Tasdelen
47'
E. Bagdemir
47'
E. Bagdemir
61'
Y. Kaplan↳ F. Tasdelen
89'
M. Arslantas↳ F. Ozler

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #552: İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 3–2 Çorluspor 1947

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik beat Çorluspor 1947 3-2 in League #552 on March 14, 2026.

Goals: M. Khalil (2'), T. Oruc (5', 20'), Y. Kaplan (61'), M. Arslantas (89').

The match was played at İnegöl İlçe Stadyumu in İnegöl.