Çorluspor 1947 1–2 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

Çorluspor 1947

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

N. Caglar 61'

F. Ozler 50' (OG)

F. Tasdelen 40'

11/9/2025

League #552 · Group 1 - 10Mustafa Kemal Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Çorluspor 194740%

×Draw23%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Çorluspor 1947Expected goals in this matchİnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.63

Çorluspor 1947

1.71

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.67

creates per match

2.25

1.00

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Çorluspor 1947

2.67

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

2.25

allows per match

Çorluspor 1947

1.00

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Çorluspor 1947+0.00on par

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çorluspor 1947 ↓

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Çorluspor 1947 or draw

63%

Çorluspor 1947 or İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

77%

Draw or İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

60%

Winning margin

Çorluspor 1947 wins by 2+

21%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Çorluspor 1947 1+ goals

82%

Çorluspor 1947 2+ goals

51%

Çorluspor 1947 3+ goals

24%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 1+ goals

80%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 2+ goals

48%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Çorluspor 1947 (draw refunded)

52%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çorluspor 1947 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çorluspor 1947 attack 2.67 + İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik attack 2.25 + Çorluspor 1947 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Çorluspor 1947 scores more

40%

level

23%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik scores more

37%

Çorluspor 1947 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Çorluspor 1947 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

F. Tasdelen↳ Y. Kaplan

50'

F. OzlerOwn goal

61'

N. Caglar↳ M. Arslantas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff