İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 3–1 Bursa Yıldırımspor

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bursa Yıldırımspor

T. Oruc 83'

S. Eylik 71' (pen)

M. P. Keklik 50'

H. Ozturk 40'

4/18/2026

League #552 · Group 1 - 30İnegöl İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik52%

×Draw25%

Bursa Yıldırımspor23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İnegöl Kafkas GençlikExpected goals in this matchBursa Yıldırımspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.00

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

1.63

Bursa Yıldırımspor

1.00

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik creates 63% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

2.00

Bursa Yıldırımspor

1.00

allows per match

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

1.00

Bursa Yıldırımspor

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik+0.00on par

Bursa Yıldırımspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik ↓

Bursa Yıldırımspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik or draw

77%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik or Bursa Yıldırımspor

75%

Draw or Bursa Yıldırımspor

48%

Winning margin

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik wins by 2+

28%

Bursa Yıldırımspor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 1+ goals

80%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 2+ goals

48%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 3+ goals

22%

Bursa Yıldırımspor 1+ goals

63%

Bursa Yıldırımspor 2+ goals

26%

Bursa Yıldırımspor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik (draw refunded)

69%

Bursa Yıldırımspor (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Bursa Yıldırımspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik attack 2.00 + Bursa Yıldırımspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bursa Yıldırımspor attack 1.00 + İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik scores more

52%

level

25%

Bursa Yıldırımspor scores more

23%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

H. Ozturk

50'

M. P. Keklik↳ S. Eylik

71'

S. EylikPenalty

83'

T. Oruc

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff