Bursa Yıldırımspor 0–1 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

Bursa Yıldırımspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

O. Toroman 74'

12/22/2025

League #552 · Group 1 - 15Minareli Çavuş Spor Tesisleri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bursa Yıldırımspor19%

×Draw23%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bursa YıldırımsporExpected goals in this matchİnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.75

Bursa Yıldırımspor

0.88

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

1.75

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik creates 99% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

2.25

1.25

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Bursa Yıldırımspor

1.00

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

2.25

allows per match

Bursa Yıldırımspor

1.25

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bursa Yıldırımspor+0.00on par

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bursa Yıldırımspor ↓

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bursa Yıldırımspor or draw

42%

Bursa Yıldırımspor or İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

77%

Draw or İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

81%

Winning margin

Bursa Yıldırımspor wins by 2+

6%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Bursa Yıldırımspor 1+ goals

59%

Bursa Yıldırımspor 2+ goals

22%

Bursa Yıldırımspor 3+ goals

6%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 1+ goals

83%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 2+ goals

52%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Bursa Yıldırımspor (draw refunded)

24%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bursa Yıldırımspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bursa Yıldırımspor attack 1.00 + İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik attack 2.25 + Bursa Yıldırımspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bursa Yıldırımspor scores more

19%

level

23%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik scores more

58%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

M. Cat

74'

O. Toroman↳ Y. Kaplan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff