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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng — Super League 2026

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
Li Haowen 89'
Hulk 48'
Elkeson 42', 29'
P. Cissé 57'
10/22/2016Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG52%
×Draw21%
Shandong Luneng27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.20
Shandong Luneng
1.54

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.74
Shandong Luneng
1.77

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.31
Shandong Luneng
1.65

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.03on par
Shandong Luneng-0.13scores less

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Shandong Luneng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
73%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Shandong Luneng
79%
Draw or Shandong Luneng
48%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
31%
Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
89%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
64%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
37%
Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
79%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
45%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
66%
Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.31 · 30 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.65 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.74 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.20

Shandong Luneng attack 1.77 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
52%
level
21%
Shandong Luneng scores more
27%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
ElkesonSHANGHAI SIPGSHANGHAI SIPG · F
9.5

Match Events

29'
Elkeson↳ Fu Huan
42'
Elkeson
46'
Wu Xinghan← Zhang Chi
46'
Qi Tianyu← Zhao Mingjian
48'
Hulk↳ Elkeson
57'
P. Cissé↳ Wu Xinghan
70'
Liu Yang← Song Long
78'
Lin Chuangyi← Hulk
86'
Li Haowen← J. Kouassi
89'
Li Haowen↳ Wu Lei

Possession

49%SHANGHAI

Shots

20SHANGHAI

Pass accuracy

49%SHANGHAI

Statistics

SHANGHAIShandong
Overview
49%Possession51%
20Total Shots15
7Corners2
12Fouls11
Shots
20Total Shots15
8On Target4
5Off Target10
7Blocked1
14Inside Box9
6Outside Box6
Passing
49%Possession51%
415Total Passes435
315Accurate Passes339
76%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls11
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shandong Luneng 4-1 in Super League on October 22, 2016.

Goals: Elkeson (29', 42'), Hulk (48'), P. Cissé (57'), Li Haowen (89').

Shandong Luneng controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 20.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.