Independiente 2–0 San Martin S.J.: Result & Stats

Independiente

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Martin S.J.

G. Avalos 82', 69'

4/13/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 13Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Independiente45%

×Draw31%

San Martin S.J.23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchSan Martin S.J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.73

Independiente

1.14

San Martin S.J.

0.73

Independiente creates 56% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

1.03

creates per match

0.77

0.69

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Independiente

1.03

San Martin S.J.

0.77

allows per match

Independiente

0.69

San Martin S.J.

1.25

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Independiente+0.17scores more

San Martin S.J.-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

San Martin S.J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

77%

Independiente or San Martin S.J.

69%

Draw or San Martin S.J.

55%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

19%

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

68%

Independiente 2+ goals

32%

Independiente 3+ goals

11%

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

52%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

17%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

66%

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.69 · 15 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.03 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

San Martin S.J. attack 0.77 + Independiente defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Independiente scores more

45%

level

31%

San Martin S.J. scores more

23%

Independiente at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

G. Avalos

Independiente · F

8.7

Match Events

11'

Ayrton Portillo

33'

Iván Marcone

37'

Franco Toloza

58'

F. Anselmo← F. Toloza

60'

S. Montiel← D. Tarzia

60'

S. Hidalgo← L. Millan

66'

G. Olguin← D. Gonzalez

69'

G. Avalos↳ P. Galdames

73'

F. Mancuello← L. Cabral

73'

Rodrigo Fernandez← I. Marcone

80'

N. Pelaitay← M. Iacobellis

80'

H. Tijanovich← N. Watson

80'

J. Menendez← A. Portillo

82'

G. Avalos↳ P. Galdames

87'

M. Gimenez← G. Avalos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteSan

Overview

69%Possession31%

15Total Shots7

10Corners0

8Fouls19

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target2

6Off Target5

5Blocked0

11Inside Box2

4Outside Box5

Passing

69%Possession31%

456Total Passes207

373Accurate Passes122

82%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls19

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3