Independiente 0–0 San Martin S.J.: Result & Stats

Independiente

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Martin S.J.

3/18/2017

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 16Libertadores de America

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Independiente45%

×Draw31%

San Martin S.J.23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchSan Martin S.J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.73

Independiente

1.14

San Martin S.J.

0.73

Independiente creates 56% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

1.03

creates per match

0.77

0.69

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Independiente

1.03

San Martin S.J.

0.77

allows per match

Independiente

0.69

San Martin S.J.

1.25

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Independiente+0.17scores more

San Martin S.J.-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

San Martin S.J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

77%

Independiente or San Martin S.J.

69%

Draw or San Martin S.J.

55%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

19%

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

68%

Independiente 2+ goals

32%

Independiente 3+ goals

11%

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

52%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

17%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

66%

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.69 · 15 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.03 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

San Martin S.J. attack 0.77 + Independiente defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Independiente scores more

45%

level

31%

San Martin S.J. scores more

23%

Independiente at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

L. Ardente

San Martin S.J. · G

8.1

Match Events

46'

M. Escudero← J. Capelli

51'

Nicolas Pelaitay

53'

E. Barco← L. Albertengo

54'

M. Benítez← G. Togni

60'

Nicolás Tagliafico

60'

Patricio Matricardi

80'

S. Rusculleda← E. Montagna

90+3'

M. Meza← E. Rigoni

90'

F. Barcelo← E. Denning

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteSan

Overview

73%Possession27%

15Total Shots5

9Corners2

17Fouls19

Shots

15Total Shots5

6On Target1

8Off Target3

1Blocked1

8Inside Box2

7Outside Box3

Passing

73%Possession27%

572Total Passes215

463Accurate Passes117

81%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls19

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Independiente vs San Martin S.J.

Independiente and San Martin S.J. drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 18, 2017.

Independiente controlled possession (73%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at Libertadores de America in Buenos Aires.

Independiente vs San Martin S.J. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente vs San Martin S.J.